Global coal supply growth could slow in the coming years because Chinese and Indonesian producers may also cut exports to ensure domestic supplies for power generation. Vietnam, which exports about 3 percent of all seaborne supply of power-station coal, could face a shortage of the fuel in 2012, Nguyen said.

“Vietnam may purchase coal from Indonesia and Australia” to meet increased demand from local power stations, he said.

Electricity demand from the Southeast Asian country may grow between 17 percent and 20 percent annually in the coming years, Nguyen told the 2008 Asia-Pacific Coal Trading & Investment Forum. Vietnam’s power plants may need 67 million tons of coal a year by 2015 compared with 6.5 million tons in 2008, he said. Coal is also used to make steel.

Vietnam’s output of the fuel may rise 26 percent to 60 million tons by 2015 from 2008, while domestic demand may more than quadruple to 91 million tons, according to calculations made by Bloomberg News based on data provided by Nguyen.

Supply constraints and rising Asian demand boosted prices of thermal coal at Australia’s Newcastle port, the world’s biggest harbor exporting the fuel, to all-time highs. This year’s contract price, which rose 125 percent to a record US$125 a ton, may increase 36 percent to $170 next year, Merrill Lynch & Co. said in a September 5 report.

Prices at the New South Wales port were at $161.35 a ton in the week ended September 5, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index.

Source: Bloomberg